“Between the United States and Iran, the risk of war is very real”
united states and Iran war, for several weeks, there has been strong tension between the United States and Iran, raising fears of armed conflict in the region. Dina Esfandiary, the researcher at the Belfer Center for Science and Security Studies at Harvard University, returns to Paris Match on the current situation.
Match of Paris. A withdrawal after the US withdrawal on the Iranian nuclear, the tennis between the two countries are at the highest. Is an armed conflict between the United States and Iran really to be feared? Dina Esfandiary.
Absolutely, the risk is there. Whatever you do with the US President It seems that some members of the US administration are pushing for the impact of arming with Iran. The risk of war is very real. The only hope is that Donald Trump was on a campaign promise.
According to Donald Trump, if Tehran “wants to fight. It will be “the last official of Iran” Donald Trump appears to be following the recommendations of John Bolton. A National Security Advisor for the White House. Iran’s foreign minister talks about the “4Bs”: Bolton, Bibi (Benjamin Netanyahu), Mohammed Ben Salman and Mohammed Bin Zayed, the Saudi and Emirati heirs.
It is clear that on Iran, John Bolton has the upper hand. Mike Pompeo is the special representative for Iran, like Brian Hook. These men are pushing for war. It’s hard to see what you’re trying to achieve with this maximum pressure campaign.
If they try to change the regime. It does not work, the stronger the foreign pressure, the more the people support the government and the system itself unites. And if the goal is to hurt the Iranian economy, why? What are they to get?
“If Iran is targeted, Iran will fight back”
Would Donald Trump try to satisfy some of his strong allies on Iran? Even this explanation does not really hold. Let’s put Saudi Arabia apart.
The Emirati has shown that they understand the risk of armed conflict. That is bad for them because they would be directly in the line of sight: Iran cannot reach the United States but can clearly touch the United Arab Emirates if they are pushing for war.
Last week, the UAE Foreign Minister called for calm. After, the sabotage of Saudi oil tankers called for caution and seemed to calm the speech from the UAE. Even the Israelis have evolved in recent days: they also call for caution and do not want escalating tensions.
The only person to go against this is Mohammed bin Salman. He has specifically accused the Iranians of oil tanker sabotage by asserting that they had financed the Houthis and provided them with the means to attack Saudi Arabia.
But I think this is not the most popular point of view including in Saudi Arabia. Like the Emiratis, the Saudis know that in case of conflict, they are within firing range of a riposte from Iran. There is no doubt that if Iran is targeted, Iran will retaliate.
Despite pressure from the Trump administration, including threatening tweets from Donald Trump. The Iranian authorities have assured that they do not want a conflict and have called for calm, but they say they are ready to respond.
“Europeans are under a lot of pressure from the Americans”
Can Europeans, who want to keep alive the Iran agreement, play a role in easing tensions? They too are in a bad position. The Europeans certainly want to maintain the agreement, which is in their interest. As the policy that has emerged from the negotiations that began a few years ago.
Europeans and Iranians have opened a dialogue on many topics, including trade, human rights, nuclear collaboration, school exchanges … They continue this dialogue, which is positive. But, the Europeans are under a lot of pressure from the Americans. So, there is a small split in Europe between those who want to stand up to the Americans. And, to defend the Iran agreement but also their own interests.
It goes beyond Iran, it is a question of the sovereignty of Europe. For his part, Bruno Le Maire admitted that the Europeans were facing pressure from the Americans but that they should remain strong and support Iran in its implementation of the nuclear agreement.
Between economic pressure and threats, how long can Iran hold? But today, the US government is very unpredictable, making sudden decisions that may worsen the situation quickly enough.
As during the crisis of US sailors captured in Iran in 2016.
These communications are no longer valid today. Not only is an error of judgment or accident possible, but the means to explain it no longer exist today. The possibility of a confrontation is very real.
united states and Iran war